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M a y 1 2 , 2 0 1 5 !
The Public’s Take – ?
The Economy
PAGE 2
TA B L E O F C O N T E N T S
Slide!
Current Economic Indicators! 3!
Economic Conditions and Views of the Future! 4!
Obama, Congress, and the Economy! 13!
Perceptions of Foreign Trade! 18!
Views on Income Inequality and Raising the Minimum Wage! 24!
Digital Snapshot on Raising Minimum Wage! 32!
PAGE 3
C U R R E N T E C O N O M I C I N D I C ATO R S S H O W I M P R O V E M E N T O V E R
L A S T Y E A R
INDICATOR
LAST YEAR
May 2014
NOW
May 2015
Unemployment Rate 6.3% 5.4%
In?ation Rate 1.5% -0.1%
Stock Market (DJIA) 16,583.34 18,191.11
Consumer Con?dence Index 83.0 95.2
U.S. Interest Rates .25% .25%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Yahoo! Finance, The Conference Board, Trading Economics
E C O N O M I C C O N D I T I O N S A N D V I E W S O F T H E F U T U R E !
PAGE 4
PAGE 5
MAJORITY OF AMERI CANS CO NTI NUE TO FEEL T HE N AT ION IS ON
THE WRONG TRACK
The percentage of
Americans saying the nation
is heading in the right
direction hasn’t topped 50
in about a decade.!
RIGHT DIRECTION 29.5%
WRONG TRACK 59.7%
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of May 6, 2015
Source: CNBC AAES Fourth Quarter Survey, March 26-29, 2015 PAGE 6
BUT AMERICANS’ VI EW S O F THE ECO NO M Y ARE IM PR OVING
SLIGHTLY
How would you rate the current state of the economy? Would you say it is excellent, good, only fair, or poor?!
33%
63%
70%
60%
53% 55% 61%
49% 44% 40% 41%
33% 28% 29%
39%
29%
25%
33%
39% 37% 30%
40%
41%
42% 42%
48%
44% 42%
22%
6% 4% 6% 6% 6% 7% 9% 13% 15% 14% 17%
24% 25%
4% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2%
Dec
2007
June
2008
Dec
2008
Dec
2009
Dec
2010
June
2011
Nov
2011
May
2012
Nov
2012
June
2013
Dec
2013
June
2014
Dec
2014
Mar
2015
Excellent
Good
Only fair
Poor
Note: “Not sure” results are not shown.
Source: Gallup Poll, April 9-12, 2015 PAGE 7
10% 11%
17%
21%
26%
30% 43%
89% 88%
81%
77%
71%
66%
53%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
April 2009 April 2010 April 2011 April 2012 April 2013 April 2014 April 2015
Good time
Bad time
AMERICANS GETTING M O RE AND M O RE PO SITI VE A BOUT JOB S
Thinking about the job situation in America today, would you say that it is now a
good time or a bad time to ?nd a quality job?!
Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey, March 1-5, 2015 PAGE 8
YET A PL URALITY BEL IEVE THE STATE O F THE ECO N OMY WIL L
R E M A I N T H E S A M E I N T H E C O M I N G Y E A R
During the next 12 months, do you think that the nation’s economy will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?!
Same
Worse
Better
22%
38% 38%
46%
42% 41%
33%
37%
29%
29%
21%
40%
35%
45%
32%
27% 26% 27%
31%
29%
22%
20% 30%
22% 22% 22% 23%
15%
29%
30%
32%
23%
20%
9%
18%
24% 25%
24%
17%
21%
51%
37%
30% 29%
33%
36%
43%
46%
41%
39%
45%
35%
41%
34%
49% 48% 48% 48%
51%
48%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Oct
2006
Oct
2008
Apr
2009
June
2009
Oct
2009
Mar
2010
June
2010
Nov
2010
Feb
2011
June
2011
Oct
2011
Mar
2012
June
2012
Oct
2012
June
2013
Sept
2013
Mar
2014
June
2014
Dec
2014
Mar
2015
Note: “Don’t know/Refused” results are not shown.
PAGE 9
AMERICANS THINK T HE HO USI NG M ARKET I S G ETT I NG BE TT ER,
WHILE HEALTH CARE COSTS ARE GETTING WORSE; THE
STRENGTH OF THE ECO NO M Y REM AI NS ABO UT THE SA ME
I’m going to mention some aspects of the national economic situation. For each, please tell me if you
expect things to get better in the next 12 months, worse, or about the same as the last 12 months.!
Better Worse
About the
same
Not Sure
Overall strength of the economy 34% 21% 44% 1%
Job growth 38% 22% 38% 2%
The housing market 42% 17% 37% 4%
America’s economic standing in the world 23% 36% 39% 2%
Health care costs 20% 56% 22% 2%
Source: Bloomberg Politics Poll, April 6-8, 2015
Source: The Economist/YouGov Poll, April 4-6, 2015 PAGE 10
33%
24%
42%
48%
23%
60%
66%
49%
44%
63%
President Obama Republicans in
Congress
Consumers Businesses Wall Street
All/Most of it Some/None of it
How much responsibility do you think the following people have for the economy improving?!
MORE CREDIT IS G IVEN TO CO NSUM ERS AND BUS INE SS ES FOR
THE ECONOMY IMPROVING THAN PRESIDENT OBAMA
Source: CBS News National Poll, February 13-17, 2015 PAGE 11
AMERICAN FAMILY FI NANCES ARE HEAVI LY A FFE CTED B Y T HE
PRICE OF GASOLINE
How much does the price of gasoline affect your family ?nances – a lot, some, not much, or not at all?!
43% 28% 19% 9%
A lot Some Not much Not at all
Source: Gallup Economic Con?dence Scores, May 2013 – April 2015 PAGE 12
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
NationalPriceofGallonofGas
EconomicCon?denceScore
Week
Economic Perception and Gas Prices
ECONOMIC CONFID ENCE SPI KES AS G AS PRICES START TO GO
D O W N , T H E N B O T H L E V E L O U T
Price of Gas
Economic Con?dence Score
O B A M A , C O N G R E S S , A N D T H E E C O N O M Y !
PAGE 13
PAGE 14
OBAMA’S JOB APPROVAL IN THE MID 40’S
APPROVE 46.1%
DISAPPROVE 49.5%
Obama’s Overall Job Approval
Approve Disapprove
% %
Gallup 47 47
GWU/Battleground 46 49
YouGov/Economist 46 51
CBS/Times 45 44
NBC/WSJ 48 47
Ipsos/Reuters 44 49
Obama Approval – Six New
National Polls
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of May 12, 2015
60% 60%
47% 47%
34%
Clinton (1999) Eisenhower (1959) Obama (2015) Reagan (1987) G.W. Bush (2007)
PAGE 15
OVERALL OBAMA’S APPROVAL HIGHER THAN HIS
PREDECECESSOR HALFWAY THRO UG H 7 T H Y E A R
Job Approval Ratings for Prior Presidents in May of Third
Year of 2nd Term
Weekly Approval Rating
Average
May 4 – 10, 2015
Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
Source: Fox News Poll, March 29-31, 2015 PAGE 16
45%
42% 40%
37% 36%
33%
52% 54% 54%
58%
55%
58%
The economy Health care Terrorism Immigration Foreign policy Iran
Approve Disapprove
OBAMA ON THE ISSUES
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing on the following issues?!
Source: Pew Research Poll, February 18-22, 2015 PAGE 17
MOST AMERIC ANS DISAPPRO VE O F ALL LEAD ERS IN CONGRE SS ,
R E P U B L I C A N S E S P E C I A L LY
26%
36%
66%
58%
8%
7%
Republican
leaders in
Congress
Democratic
leaders in
Congress
Disapprove DKApprove
Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Republican/Democratic leaders in Congress are doing?!
P E R C E P T I O N S O F F O R E I G N T R A D E !
PAGE 18
PAGE 19
MAJORITY OF AMERI CANS STI LL SEE O PPO RTUNIT Y IN
FOREIGN TRADE
What do you think foreign trade means for America? Do you see foreign trade more as an opportunity for
economic growth through increased U.S. exports or a threat to the economy from foreign imports?!
Source: Gallup Poll, February 8-11, 2015
44%
53%
54%
56%
51%52%
49%
44%
45%
43%
41%
44% 45%46%
57%
54%
58%
48%
38%
35%
36%37%
39%
41%
48%
46%
48%
52%
47%
45%46%
35%
38%
33%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14
Opportunity
for economic
growth
Threat to the
economy
PAGE 20
MORE AMERICANS ARE STARTI NG TO THI NK T HAT F REE TRA DE
H A S H E L P E D T H E U N I T E D S TAT E S
23% 23% 25%
47%
38% 31%
23%
30% 37%
Nov-10 Nov-14 Apr-15
Has helped the U.S.
Has hurt the U.S.
Hasn't made much of a
difference
In general, do you think that free trade between the United States and foreign countries has helped the United
States, has hurt the United States, or has not made much of a difference either way?!
Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey, April 26-30, 2015 Note: “Not sure” results are not shown.
Source: Pew Research Poll, March 17 – June 5, 2014 PAGE 21
H O W E V E R , A M E R I C A N S U N S U R E O F T R A D E B E N E F I T S
Does trade with other countries lead to job creation in (survey country), job losses, or does it not make a difference?
Does trade with other countries lead to an increase in the wages of (survey nationality) workers, a decrease in wages,
or does it not make a difference? !
In your opinion, when foreign companies buy (survey nationality) companies, does this have a very good, somewhat
good, somewhat bad, or a very bad impact on our country?!
20%
17%
28%
44%
28%
31%
52%
45%
44%
66%
55%
57%
Trade creates jobs
Trade raises wages
Foreign companies buying domestic
companies is good
U.S.
Advanced Countries
Emerging Countries
Developing Countries
Note: Categories determined by a combination of each country’s World Bank Income
Group, GDP Per Capita (PPP), GPP (US$ Billions) and Average GDP Growth (2004-2013)
PAGE 22
AMERICAN, FRENCH, I TAL IAN AND JAPANESE VI EW S ON T RADE
N O T I N L I N E W I T H M O S T T P P A N D T T I P C O U N T R I E S
Does trade with other countries lead to job creation in (survey country), job losses, or does it not make a difference? !
55%
50%
24%
20%
15%
13%
TPP Countries
TTIP Countries
France
U.S.
Japan
Italy
% job creation
Source: Pew Research Poll, March 17 – June 5, 2014
Source: Pew Research Poll, February 26 – March 1, 2015 PAGE 23
MOST AMERIC ANS THI NK T HE TTI P AND TPP TRA DE
AGRE EMENTS ARE A G OO D THI NG
As you may know, the U.S. and the EU are negotiating
a free trade agreement called the Transatlantic Trade
and Investment Partnership, or TTIP. Do you think this
trade agreement will be a good thing for our country or
a bad thing? !
As you may know, the United States is negotiating a
free trade agreement with eleven countries in Asia and
Latin America called the Trans-Paci?c Partnership. Do
you think this trade agreement will be a good thing for
our country or a bad thing?!
50%
21%
15%
2%
11% Good thing
Bad thing
Haven't heard enough
Neither good nor bad
DK/Refused
55%
25%
10%
1%
8%
Source: Pew Research Poll, February 27 – March 2, 2014
TTIP TPP
V I E W S O N I N C O M E I N E Q U A L I T Y A N D R A I S I N G T H E M I N I M U M W A G E !
PAGE 24
Source: Bloomberg Politics Poll, April 6-8, 2015 PAGE 25
MOST AMERIC ANS THI NK T HE G AP BETW EEN T HE RICH AND
EVERYONE ELSE IS GET TI NG BI G G ER
Do you have a sense that the gap between the rich and everyone else is getting
bigger, staying about the same, or getting smaller compared to 10 years ago?!
69% 17% 10% 4%
Getting bigger Staying the same Getting smaller
Not sure
Total
76%
12%
3%
9%
Democrats
72%
16%
2%
10%
Independents
Getting bigger Staying the same
Not sure Getting smaller
59%25%
5% 11%
Republicans
PAGE 26
MAJORITY OF AMERI CANS FEEL THAT O NLY THOS E AT THE TOP
H AV E T H E O P P O RT U N I T Y TO G E T A H E A D
Which comes closer to your view? In today’s economy,
everyone has a fair chance to get ahead in the long run
OR In today’s economy, it’s mainly just a few people at
the top who have a chance to get ahead.!
Who do you think bene?ts most from the policies of the
federal government: the rich, the middle class, the poor,
or do all bene?t equally?!
36%
4%
60%
Anyone can get
ahead
Don't know/ No
answer
Only those at the
top can get
ahead
61%
8%
19%
8%
4%
Rich Middle
class
Poor All equally Don't
know
Source: CBS News National Poll, February 13-17, 2015
PAGE 27
AMERICANS THINK L IF E F OR M I DDLE CLASS A MERICA NS HA S
GOTTEN WORSE, MOST CONCERNED THEY CAN’T GET AHEAD
Over the past 10 years, do you think life for middle
class Americans has gotten better or worse?!
Better
23%
Same
4%
Don't
know
2%
Worse
71%
Source: CBS News National Poll, February 13-17, 2015
Which concerns you more… ?!
28%
68%
The income gap between
the wealthiest Americans
and the rest of the country
Middle and working class
Americans not being able
to get ahead ?nancially
Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll, April 26-30, 2015
PAGE 28
AND MOST FEEL TH AT THE M O NEY AND W EALTH I N THIS
C O U N T RY S H O U L D B E M O R E E V E N LY D I S T R I B U T E D
Do you feel that the distribution of money and wealth in this country today is fair, or do you feel that the money
and wealth in this country should be more evenly distributed among a larger percentage of the people?!
Source: Gallup Poll, April 9-12, 2015
31%
28%
33% 31%
38%
31% 29%
27%
37%
35% 35% 33% 31%
60%
66%
62% 63%
56%
63%
66%68%
58%
59%
57% 59%
63%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Jan-84 Jan-87 Jan-90 Jan-93 Jan-96 Jan-99 Jan-02 Jan-05 Jan-08 Jan-11 Jan-14
Distribution is
fair
Should be
more evenly
distributed
PAGE 29
AMERICANS SPLIT O N WHETHER THE G O VERNM ENT SHOUL D
STEP IN TO SHRINK THE G AP O R STEP ASI DE AND L ET THE
MARKET OPERATE FREELY; STRO NG PARTI SAN DI F FE RENCE S
In thinking about the gap between the rich and everyone else, do you think it would be…!
Source: Bloomberg Politics Poll, April 6-8, 2015
46%
7%
47%
Total
70%
8%
22%
Democrats
43%
5%
52%
Independents
19%
6%
75%
Republicans
Be#er	
 ?for	
 ?the	
 ?government	
 ?to	
 ?stand	
 ?aside	
 ?and	
 ?let	
 ?the	
 ?
market	
 ?operate	
 ?freely	
 ?even	
 ?if	
 ?the	
 ?gap	
 ?gets	
 ?wider	
 ?
Be#er	
 ?for	
 ?the	
 ?government	
 ?to	
 ?implement	
 ?
policies	
 ?designed	
 ?to	
 ?shrink	
 ?that	
 ?gap	
 ?
Not	
 ?sure	
 ?
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, January 12-15, 2015, PAGE 30
AMERICANS FEEL THAT DEM O CRATS AND THE O BA MA
ADMINISTRATION BET TER ADDRESS THE I NC OM E G AP THA N
R E P U B L I C A N S
Who do you think has better ideas about how to
address the income gap…?!
In general, do you think…?!
44%
33%
Democrats Republicans
63%
9%
3%
20%
23%
18%
25%
26%
Favor the rich
Favor the middle class
Favor the poor
Treat all equally
Republicans in
Congress
Obama
Administration
Source: CBS News Poll, January 2014Note: “Both,” “Neither,” “Not a problem” results are not shown.
Source: FOX News Poll, April 19-21, 2015 PAGE 31
AMERICANS THINK T HE M INI M UM WAG E SHO UL D B E RA ISE D, BUT
ALSO FIND IT LIKELY BUSI NESSES W I LL CUT JO BS IF IT IS
Which of the following comes closest to your view
on how the federal government should handle the
minimum wage?!
How likely do you think it is that raising the
minimum wage will cause businesses to cut jobs or
hire fewer workers?!
54%
23%
20%
The government should
raise the minimum wage
because it would help lots
of people pay their bills
The government should
NOT raise the minimum
wage because it would
cause businesses to cut
jobs
There shouldn't be a
minimum wage because
government shouldn't tell
businesses what to pay
their employees
13% 18% 32% 35%
Not at all Not very Somewhat Very
67% Likely
G P G D i g i t a l S n a p s h o t !
EXPLORING THE DIG ITAL C O NVERSATI O N AROUND T HE M INIMUM
WA G E I N T H E U S!
In order to get a better understanding of some of the prominent online conversations around the
economy, GPG conducted an analysis of the online conversation from February 1 to April 30, 2015,
that examined mentions of the minimum wage in the US.!
?? GPG used online media analysis tools to capture media results from the full spectrum of digital and
social media sources including:!
?? Online News!
?? Forums!
?? Blogs!
?? Social Media (Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Google+, Tumblr, etc.)!
?? GPG then conducted both quantitative and qualitative analysis of the data to derive the following
insights.!
Based on 68,402 results, from 2/1/15 – 4/30/15. !
PAGE 33
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1-Feb-15
3-Feb-15
5-Feb-15
7-Feb-15
9-Feb-15
11-Feb-15
13-Feb-15
15-Feb-15
17-Feb-15
19-Feb-15
21-Feb-15
23-Feb-15
25-Feb-15
27-Feb-15
1-Mar-15
3-Mar-15
5-Mar-15
7-Mar-15
9-Mar-15
11-Mar-15
13-Mar-15
15-Mar-15
17-Mar-15
19-Mar-15
21-Mar-15
23-Mar-15
25-Mar-15
27-Mar-15
29-Mar-15
31-Mar-15
2-Apr-15
4-Apr-15
6-Apr-15
8-Apr-15
10-Apr-15
12-Apr-15
14-Apr-15
16-Apr-15
18-Apr-15
20-Apr-15
22-Apr-15
24-Apr-15
26-Apr-15
28-Apr-15
30-Apr-15
PAGE 34
KEY SPIKES IN COVERAG E
GPG Original Digital Research
NumberofMentions
Based on 68,402 results, from 2/1/15 – 4/30/15. !
Mike Rowe, former host of “Dirty Jobs,” publishes
an “Off the Wall” Facebook post questioning
movements pushing for minimum wage increases,
stating that jobs are about opportunities, not
wages. Many repost Rowe’s comments on social
media. The January jobs report is also released,
showing a 2.2% increase in wages. !
Organizations in support of minimum
wage increases launch a Twitter
campaign. Nacion de Inmigrants
(@ImmigranNacion) tweets at Republican
Members of Congress, stating “you can’t
govern,” paired with the hashtag,
“MinimumWage.” Americans America
(@americans4amer) tweeted, “raise the
minimum wage your greed is hurting our
economy!” Both went viral on Twitter with
RTs.!
The Fight For 15 campaign organizes protests outside
McDonalds’ in NYC and in several U.S. cities calling
for minimum wage increases and a union for
McDonald’s low-wage employees. Protests gain
coverage in mainstream news and on Twitter when
Senator Elizabeth Warren (@SenWarren) tweets in
support of minimum wage increases, using the
hashtag “FightFor15.” News also breaks that CEO of
Gravity Payments plans to cut his own salary so that all
company employees receive a minimum salary of
$70K.!
PAGE 35
MINIMUM WAGE CO NVERSATI O NS W ERE PRI MARILY ON T WIT TE R
– F O L L O W E D B Y T R A D I T I O N A L N E W S A N D FA C E B O O K
38%
22% 20%
12%
7%
Twitter News Facebook Blog Forums
EXAMPLE NEWS ARTICLES DRIVING CONVERSATION
OVER THIS TIME PERIOD:
Obama And Democrats Raise Their Minimum Wage
Proposal To $12 (Huf?ngton Post, April 30, 2015)
Wal-Mart Will Give Half-Million Employees Pay Raises
(Yahoo! Finance, February 19, 2015)
CEO Taking $70K Salary Says It's a "Sacri?ce” (CBS
News, April 24, 2015)
$15 Minimum Wage Protests Could Spell Major Problems
For Retailers (TheStreet, April 15, 2015)
Mayor Bill De Blasio To Push For Major Minimum Wage
Hike in New York City (Huf?ngton Post, February 3, 2015)
GPG Original Digital Research
Based on 68,402 results, from 2/1/15 – 4/30/15. !
THEMES WITHIN THE MINIMUM WAGE CONVERSATION
GPG also used these online media analysis tools to capture media results across four sub-topics
within the larger minimum wage conversation: !
Based on 68,402 results, from 2/1/15 – 4/30/15. !
Large retailers agree to
increase wages!
TTIP / TPP and its effect
on wages!
Racial and economic
justice issues!
Minimum wage debates
in the 2016 elections !
This theme most commonly
appeared in mid-February
when Wal-Mart announced
that it would raise it’s wages
to $10 per hour. Nearly half
of these conversations
happened on Facebook,
and did not appear as
strongly on Twitter or in
news and blogs.!
Coverage of the debate over
the Transatlantic Trade and
Investment Partnership
(TTIP) and the Trans-Paci?c
Partnership (TPP) commonly
mentioned its effect on
wages in the US. Elizabeth
Warren’s opposition
garnered a considerable
amount of coverage in news
and blogs.!
Increasing the minimum
wage has been featured
prominently in the
Democratic presidential
contenders’ platforms, and
was mentioned in many news
articles and Facebook posts
as these candidates
announced their campaigns
over this period.!
Minimum wage
conversations during this
period often overlapped with
discussions of racial and
economic justice, mostly
covered by online news and
blogs. Organizations
advocating for increasing
minimum wage commonly
connected the low wages to
economic injustices felt by
Black communities.!
PAGE 36
1025 F Street NW, 9th Floor!
Washington, DC 20004!
121 East 24th Street, 10th Floor !
New York, NY 10010!
202.337.0808 | GPG.COM!
GPG Research
The Glover Park Group is a leading strategic communications and government affairs ?rm.?
GPG?offers an integrated and complementary suite of services to plan, build and execute all
manner of communications tactics, campaigns and programs.!
?!
Our in-house research team is a data- and insight-driven out?t.? We employ cutting-edge
research methodologies, from digital analytics to quantitative and qualitative opinion research, to
help our clients understand where the conversation begins and, more importantly, how we can
in?uence it. ??!
?!
On top of a full complement of quantitative and qualitative public opinion research services, we
also routinely put together a variety of presentations from the most recent national surveys.!
For more information about this presentation
or to ?nd out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: ?
?
?
?
Jason Boxt (jboxt@gpg.com)

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Public Opinion Landscape: Economy - 5.12.15

  • 1. M a y 1 2 , 2 0 1 5 ! The Public’s Take – ? The Economy
  • 2. PAGE 2 TA B L E O F C O N T E N T S Slide! Current Economic Indicators! 3! Economic Conditions and Views of the Future! 4! Obama, Congress, and the Economy! 13! Perceptions of Foreign Trade! 18! Views on Income Inequality and Raising the Minimum Wage! 24! Digital Snapshot on Raising Minimum Wage! 32!
  • 3. PAGE 3 C U R R E N T E C O N O M I C I N D I C ATO R S S H O W I M P R O V E M E N T O V E R L A S T Y E A R INDICATOR LAST YEAR May 2014 NOW May 2015 Unemployment Rate 6.3% 5.4% In?ation Rate 1.5% -0.1% Stock Market (DJIA) 16,583.34 18,191.11 Consumer Con?dence Index 83.0 95.2 U.S. Interest Rates .25% .25% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Yahoo! Finance, The Conference Board, Trading Economics
  • 4. E C O N O M I C C O N D I T I O N S A N D V I E W S O F T H E F U T U R E ! PAGE 4
  • 5. PAGE 5 MAJORITY OF AMERI CANS CO NTI NUE TO FEEL T HE N AT ION IS ON THE WRONG TRACK The percentage of Americans saying the nation is heading in the right direction hasn’t topped 50 in about a decade.! RIGHT DIRECTION 29.5% WRONG TRACK 59.7% Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of May 6, 2015
  • 6. Source: CNBC AAES Fourth Quarter Survey, March 26-29, 2015 PAGE 6 BUT AMERICANS’ VI EW S O F THE ECO NO M Y ARE IM PR OVING SLIGHTLY How would you rate the current state of the economy? Would you say it is excellent, good, only fair, or poor?! 33% 63% 70% 60% 53% 55% 61% 49% 44% 40% 41% 33% 28% 29% 39% 29% 25% 33% 39% 37% 30% 40% 41% 42% 42% 48% 44% 42% 22% 6% 4% 6% 6% 6% 7% 9% 13% 15% 14% 17% 24% 25% 4% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% Dec 2007 June 2008 Dec 2008 Dec 2009 Dec 2010 June 2011 Nov 2011 May 2012 Nov 2012 June 2013 Dec 2013 June 2014 Dec 2014 Mar 2015 Excellent Good Only fair Poor Note: “Not sure” results are not shown.
  • 7. Source: Gallup Poll, April 9-12, 2015 PAGE 7 10% 11% 17% 21% 26% 30% 43% 89% 88% 81% 77% 71% 66% 53% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% April 2009 April 2010 April 2011 April 2012 April 2013 April 2014 April 2015 Good time Bad time AMERICANS GETTING M O RE AND M O RE PO SITI VE A BOUT JOB S Thinking about the job situation in America today, would you say that it is now a good time or a bad time to ?nd a quality job?!
  • 8. Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey, March 1-5, 2015 PAGE 8 YET A PL URALITY BEL IEVE THE STATE O F THE ECO N OMY WIL L R E M A I N T H E S A M E I N T H E C O M I N G Y E A R During the next 12 months, do you think that the nation’s economy will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?! Same Worse Better 22% 38% 38% 46% 42% 41% 33% 37% 29% 29% 21% 40% 35% 45% 32% 27% 26% 27% 31% 29% 22% 20% 30% 22% 22% 22% 23% 15% 29% 30% 32% 23% 20% 9% 18% 24% 25% 24% 17% 21% 51% 37% 30% 29% 33% 36% 43% 46% 41% 39% 45% 35% 41% 34% 49% 48% 48% 48% 51% 48% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Oct 2006 Oct 2008 Apr 2009 June 2009 Oct 2009 Mar 2010 June 2010 Nov 2010 Feb 2011 June 2011 Oct 2011 Mar 2012 June 2012 Oct 2012 June 2013 Sept 2013 Mar 2014 June 2014 Dec 2014 Mar 2015 Note: “Don’t know/Refused” results are not shown.
  • 9. PAGE 9 AMERICANS THINK T HE HO USI NG M ARKET I S G ETT I NG BE TT ER, WHILE HEALTH CARE COSTS ARE GETTING WORSE; THE STRENGTH OF THE ECO NO M Y REM AI NS ABO UT THE SA ME I’m going to mention some aspects of the national economic situation. For each, please tell me if you expect things to get better in the next 12 months, worse, or about the same as the last 12 months.! Better Worse About the same Not Sure Overall strength of the economy 34% 21% 44% 1% Job growth 38% 22% 38% 2% The housing market 42% 17% 37% 4% America’s economic standing in the world 23% 36% 39% 2% Health care costs 20% 56% 22% 2% Source: Bloomberg Politics Poll, April 6-8, 2015
  • 10. Source: The Economist/YouGov Poll, April 4-6, 2015 PAGE 10 33% 24% 42% 48% 23% 60% 66% 49% 44% 63% President Obama Republicans in Congress Consumers Businesses Wall Street All/Most of it Some/None of it How much responsibility do you think the following people have for the economy improving?! MORE CREDIT IS G IVEN TO CO NSUM ERS AND BUS INE SS ES FOR THE ECONOMY IMPROVING THAN PRESIDENT OBAMA
  • 11. Source: CBS News National Poll, February 13-17, 2015 PAGE 11 AMERICAN FAMILY FI NANCES ARE HEAVI LY A FFE CTED B Y T HE PRICE OF GASOLINE How much does the price of gasoline affect your family ?nances – a lot, some, not much, or not at all?! 43% 28% 19% 9% A lot Some Not much Not at all
  • 12. Source: Gallup Economic Con?dence Scores, May 2013 – April 2015 PAGE 12 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 NationalPriceofGallonofGas EconomicCon?denceScore Week Economic Perception and Gas Prices ECONOMIC CONFID ENCE SPI KES AS G AS PRICES START TO GO D O W N , T H E N B O T H L E V E L O U T Price of Gas Economic Con?dence Score
  • 13. O B A M A , C O N G R E S S , A N D T H E E C O N O M Y ! PAGE 13
  • 14. PAGE 14 OBAMA’S JOB APPROVAL IN THE MID 40’S APPROVE 46.1% DISAPPROVE 49.5% Obama’s Overall Job Approval Approve Disapprove % % Gallup 47 47 GWU/Battleground 46 49 YouGov/Economist 46 51 CBS/Times 45 44 NBC/WSJ 48 47 Ipsos/Reuters 44 49 Obama Approval – Six New National Polls Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of May 12, 2015
  • 15. 60% 60% 47% 47% 34% Clinton (1999) Eisenhower (1959) Obama (2015) Reagan (1987) G.W. Bush (2007) PAGE 15 OVERALL OBAMA’S APPROVAL HIGHER THAN HIS PREDECECESSOR HALFWAY THRO UG H 7 T H Y E A R Job Approval Ratings for Prior Presidents in May of Third Year of 2nd Term Weekly Approval Rating Average May 4 – 10, 2015 Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
  • 16. Source: Fox News Poll, March 29-31, 2015 PAGE 16 45% 42% 40% 37% 36% 33% 52% 54% 54% 58% 55% 58% The economy Health care Terrorism Immigration Foreign policy Iran Approve Disapprove OBAMA ON THE ISSUES Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing on the following issues?!
  • 17. Source: Pew Research Poll, February 18-22, 2015 PAGE 17 MOST AMERIC ANS DISAPPRO VE O F ALL LEAD ERS IN CONGRE SS , R E P U B L I C A N S E S P E C I A L LY 26% 36% 66% 58% 8% 7% Republican leaders in Congress Democratic leaders in Congress Disapprove DKApprove Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Republican/Democratic leaders in Congress are doing?!
  • 18. P E R C E P T I O N S O F F O R E I G N T R A D E ! PAGE 18
  • 19. PAGE 19 MAJORITY OF AMERI CANS STI LL SEE O PPO RTUNIT Y IN FOREIGN TRADE What do you think foreign trade means for America? Do you see foreign trade more as an opportunity for economic growth through increased U.S. exports or a threat to the economy from foreign imports?! Source: Gallup Poll, February 8-11, 2015 44% 53% 54% 56% 51%52% 49% 44% 45% 43% 41% 44% 45%46% 57% 54% 58% 48% 38% 35% 36%37% 39% 41% 48% 46% 48% 52% 47% 45%46% 35% 38% 33% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Opportunity for economic growth Threat to the economy
  • 20. PAGE 20 MORE AMERICANS ARE STARTI NG TO THI NK T HAT F REE TRA DE H A S H E L P E D T H E U N I T E D S TAT E S 23% 23% 25% 47% 38% 31% 23% 30% 37% Nov-10 Nov-14 Apr-15 Has helped the U.S. Has hurt the U.S. Hasn't made much of a difference In general, do you think that free trade between the United States and foreign countries has helped the United States, has hurt the United States, or has not made much of a difference either way?! Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey, April 26-30, 2015 Note: “Not sure” results are not shown.
  • 21. Source: Pew Research Poll, March 17 – June 5, 2014 PAGE 21 H O W E V E R , A M E R I C A N S U N S U R E O F T R A D E B E N E F I T S Does trade with other countries lead to job creation in (survey country), job losses, or does it not make a difference? Does trade with other countries lead to an increase in the wages of (survey nationality) workers, a decrease in wages, or does it not make a difference? ! In your opinion, when foreign companies buy (survey nationality) companies, does this have a very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad, or a very bad impact on our country?! 20% 17% 28% 44% 28% 31% 52% 45% 44% 66% 55% 57% Trade creates jobs Trade raises wages Foreign companies buying domestic companies is good U.S. Advanced Countries Emerging Countries Developing Countries Note: Categories determined by a combination of each country’s World Bank Income Group, GDP Per Capita (PPP), GPP (US$ Billions) and Average GDP Growth (2004-2013)
  • 22. PAGE 22 AMERICAN, FRENCH, I TAL IAN AND JAPANESE VI EW S ON T RADE N O T I N L I N E W I T H M O S T T P P A N D T T I P C O U N T R I E S Does trade with other countries lead to job creation in (survey country), job losses, or does it not make a difference? ! 55% 50% 24% 20% 15% 13% TPP Countries TTIP Countries France U.S. Japan Italy % job creation Source: Pew Research Poll, March 17 – June 5, 2014
  • 23. Source: Pew Research Poll, February 26 – March 1, 2015 PAGE 23 MOST AMERIC ANS THI NK T HE TTI P AND TPP TRA DE AGRE EMENTS ARE A G OO D THI NG As you may know, the U.S. and the EU are negotiating a free trade agreement called the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, or TTIP. Do you think this trade agreement will be a good thing for our country or a bad thing? ! As you may know, the United States is negotiating a free trade agreement with eleven countries in Asia and Latin America called the Trans-Paci?c Partnership. Do you think this trade agreement will be a good thing for our country or a bad thing?! 50% 21% 15% 2% 11% Good thing Bad thing Haven't heard enough Neither good nor bad DK/Refused 55% 25% 10% 1% 8% Source: Pew Research Poll, February 27 – March 2, 2014 TTIP TPP
  • 24. V I E W S O N I N C O M E I N E Q U A L I T Y A N D R A I S I N G T H E M I N I M U M W A G E ! PAGE 24
  • 25. Source: Bloomberg Politics Poll, April 6-8, 2015 PAGE 25 MOST AMERIC ANS THI NK T HE G AP BETW EEN T HE RICH AND EVERYONE ELSE IS GET TI NG BI G G ER Do you have a sense that the gap between the rich and everyone else is getting bigger, staying about the same, or getting smaller compared to 10 years ago?! 69% 17% 10% 4% Getting bigger Staying the same Getting smaller Not sure Total 76% 12% 3% 9% Democrats 72% 16% 2% 10% Independents Getting bigger Staying the same Not sure Getting smaller 59%25% 5% 11% Republicans
  • 26. PAGE 26 MAJORITY OF AMERI CANS FEEL THAT O NLY THOS E AT THE TOP H AV E T H E O P P O RT U N I T Y TO G E T A H E A D Which comes closer to your view? In today’s economy, everyone has a fair chance to get ahead in the long run OR In today’s economy, it’s mainly just a few people at the top who have a chance to get ahead.! Who do you think bene?ts most from the policies of the federal government: the rich, the middle class, the poor, or do all bene?t equally?! 36% 4% 60% Anyone can get ahead Don't know/ No answer Only those at the top can get ahead 61% 8% 19% 8% 4% Rich Middle class Poor All equally Don't know Source: CBS News National Poll, February 13-17, 2015
  • 27. PAGE 27 AMERICANS THINK L IF E F OR M I DDLE CLASS A MERICA NS HA S GOTTEN WORSE, MOST CONCERNED THEY CAN’T GET AHEAD Over the past 10 years, do you think life for middle class Americans has gotten better or worse?! Better 23% Same 4% Don't know 2% Worse 71% Source: CBS News National Poll, February 13-17, 2015 Which concerns you more… ?! 28% 68% The income gap between the wealthiest Americans and the rest of the country Middle and working class Americans not being able to get ahead ?nancially Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll, April 26-30, 2015
  • 28. PAGE 28 AND MOST FEEL TH AT THE M O NEY AND W EALTH I N THIS C O U N T RY S H O U L D B E M O R E E V E N LY D I S T R I B U T E D Do you feel that the distribution of money and wealth in this country today is fair, or do you feel that the money and wealth in this country should be more evenly distributed among a larger percentage of the people?! Source: Gallup Poll, April 9-12, 2015 31% 28% 33% 31% 38% 31% 29% 27% 37% 35% 35% 33% 31% 60% 66% 62% 63% 56% 63% 66%68% 58% 59% 57% 59% 63% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Jan-84 Jan-87 Jan-90 Jan-93 Jan-96 Jan-99 Jan-02 Jan-05 Jan-08 Jan-11 Jan-14 Distribution is fair Should be more evenly distributed
  • 29. PAGE 29 AMERICANS SPLIT O N WHETHER THE G O VERNM ENT SHOUL D STEP IN TO SHRINK THE G AP O R STEP ASI DE AND L ET THE MARKET OPERATE FREELY; STRO NG PARTI SAN DI F FE RENCE S In thinking about the gap between the rich and everyone else, do you think it would be…! Source: Bloomberg Politics Poll, April 6-8, 2015 46% 7% 47% Total 70% 8% 22% Democrats 43% 5% 52% Independents 19% 6% 75% Republicans Be#er ?for ?the ?government ?to ?stand ?aside ?and ?let ?the ? market ?operate ?freely ?even ?if ?the ?gap ?gets ?wider ? Be#er ?for ?the ?government ?to ?implement ? policies ?designed ?to ?shrink ?that ?gap ? Not ?sure ?
  • 30. Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, January 12-15, 2015, PAGE 30 AMERICANS FEEL THAT DEM O CRATS AND THE O BA MA ADMINISTRATION BET TER ADDRESS THE I NC OM E G AP THA N R E P U B L I C A N S Who do you think has better ideas about how to address the income gap…?! In general, do you think…?! 44% 33% Democrats Republicans 63% 9% 3% 20% 23% 18% 25% 26% Favor the rich Favor the middle class Favor the poor Treat all equally Republicans in Congress Obama Administration Source: CBS News Poll, January 2014Note: “Both,” “Neither,” “Not a problem” results are not shown.
  • 31. Source: FOX News Poll, April 19-21, 2015 PAGE 31 AMERICANS THINK T HE M INI M UM WAG E SHO UL D B E RA ISE D, BUT ALSO FIND IT LIKELY BUSI NESSES W I LL CUT JO BS IF IT IS Which of the following comes closest to your view on how the federal government should handle the minimum wage?! How likely do you think it is that raising the minimum wage will cause businesses to cut jobs or hire fewer workers?! 54% 23% 20% The government should raise the minimum wage because it would help lots of people pay their bills The government should NOT raise the minimum wage because it would cause businesses to cut jobs There shouldn't be a minimum wage because government shouldn't tell businesses what to pay their employees 13% 18% 32% 35% Not at all Not very Somewhat Very 67% Likely
  • 32. G P G D i g i t a l S n a p s h o t !
  • 33. EXPLORING THE DIG ITAL C O NVERSATI O N AROUND T HE M INIMUM WA G E I N T H E U S! In order to get a better understanding of some of the prominent online conversations around the economy, GPG conducted an analysis of the online conversation from February 1 to April 30, 2015, that examined mentions of the minimum wage in the US.! ?? GPG used online media analysis tools to capture media results from the full spectrum of digital and social media sources including:! ?? Online News! ?? Forums! ?? Blogs! ?? Social Media (Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Google+, Tumblr, etc.)! ?? GPG then conducted both quantitative and qualitative analysis of the data to derive the following insights.! Based on 68,402 results, from 2/1/15 – 4/30/15. ! PAGE 33
  • 34. 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 1-Feb-15 3-Feb-15 5-Feb-15 7-Feb-15 9-Feb-15 11-Feb-15 13-Feb-15 15-Feb-15 17-Feb-15 19-Feb-15 21-Feb-15 23-Feb-15 25-Feb-15 27-Feb-15 1-Mar-15 3-Mar-15 5-Mar-15 7-Mar-15 9-Mar-15 11-Mar-15 13-Mar-15 15-Mar-15 17-Mar-15 19-Mar-15 21-Mar-15 23-Mar-15 25-Mar-15 27-Mar-15 29-Mar-15 31-Mar-15 2-Apr-15 4-Apr-15 6-Apr-15 8-Apr-15 10-Apr-15 12-Apr-15 14-Apr-15 16-Apr-15 18-Apr-15 20-Apr-15 22-Apr-15 24-Apr-15 26-Apr-15 28-Apr-15 30-Apr-15 PAGE 34 KEY SPIKES IN COVERAG E GPG Original Digital Research NumberofMentions Based on 68,402 results, from 2/1/15 – 4/30/15. ! Mike Rowe, former host of “Dirty Jobs,” publishes an “Off the Wall” Facebook post questioning movements pushing for minimum wage increases, stating that jobs are about opportunities, not wages. Many repost Rowe’s comments on social media. The January jobs report is also released, showing a 2.2% increase in wages. ! Organizations in support of minimum wage increases launch a Twitter campaign. Nacion de Inmigrants (@ImmigranNacion) tweets at Republican Members of Congress, stating “you can’t govern,” paired with the hashtag, “MinimumWage.” Americans America (@americans4amer) tweeted, “raise the minimum wage your greed is hurting our economy!” Both went viral on Twitter with RTs.! The Fight For 15 campaign organizes protests outside McDonalds’ in NYC and in several U.S. cities calling for minimum wage increases and a union for McDonald’s low-wage employees. Protests gain coverage in mainstream news and on Twitter when Senator Elizabeth Warren (@SenWarren) tweets in support of minimum wage increases, using the hashtag “FightFor15.” News also breaks that CEO of Gravity Payments plans to cut his own salary so that all company employees receive a minimum salary of $70K.!
  • 35. PAGE 35 MINIMUM WAGE CO NVERSATI O NS W ERE PRI MARILY ON T WIT TE R – F O L L O W E D B Y T R A D I T I O N A L N E W S A N D FA C E B O O K 38% 22% 20% 12% 7% Twitter News Facebook Blog Forums EXAMPLE NEWS ARTICLES DRIVING CONVERSATION OVER THIS TIME PERIOD: Obama And Democrats Raise Their Minimum Wage Proposal To $12 (Huf?ngton Post, April 30, 2015) Wal-Mart Will Give Half-Million Employees Pay Raises (Yahoo! Finance, February 19, 2015) CEO Taking $70K Salary Says It's a "Sacri?ce” (CBS News, April 24, 2015) $15 Minimum Wage Protests Could Spell Major Problems For Retailers (TheStreet, April 15, 2015) Mayor Bill De Blasio To Push For Major Minimum Wage Hike in New York City (Huf?ngton Post, February 3, 2015) GPG Original Digital Research Based on 68,402 results, from 2/1/15 – 4/30/15. !
  • 36. THEMES WITHIN THE MINIMUM WAGE CONVERSATION GPG also used these online media analysis tools to capture media results across four sub-topics within the larger minimum wage conversation: ! Based on 68,402 results, from 2/1/15 – 4/30/15. ! Large retailers agree to increase wages! TTIP / TPP and its effect on wages! Racial and economic justice issues! Minimum wage debates in the 2016 elections ! This theme most commonly appeared in mid-February when Wal-Mart announced that it would raise it’s wages to $10 per hour. Nearly half of these conversations happened on Facebook, and did not appear as strongly on Twitter or in news and blogs.! Coverage of the debate over the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and the Trans-Paci?c Partnership (TPP) commonly mentioned its effect on wages in the US. Elizabeth Warren’s opposition garnered a considerable amount of coverage in news and blogs.! Increasing the minimum wage has been featured prominently in the Democratic presidential contenders’ platforms, and was mentioned in many news articles and Facebook posts as these candidates announced their campaigns over this period.! Minimum wage conversations during this period often overlapped with discussions of racial and economic justice, mostly covered by online news and blogs. Organizations advocating for increasing minimum wage commonly connected the low wages to economic injustices felt by Black communities.! PAGE 36
  • 37. 1025 F Street NW, 9th Floor! Washington, DC 20004! 121 East 24th Street, 10th Floor ! New York, NY 10010! 202.337.0808 | GPG.COM! GPG Research The Glover Park Group is a leading strategic communications and government affairs ?rm.? GPG?offers an integrated and complementary suite of services to plan, build and execute all manner of communications tactics, campaigns and programs.! ?! Our in-house research team is a data- and insight-driven out?t.? We employ cutting-edge research methodologies, from digital analytics to quantitative and qualitative opinion research, to help our clients understand where the conversation begins and, more importantly, how we can in?uence it. ??! ?! On top of a full complement of quantitative and qualitative public opinion research services, we also routinely put together a variety of presentations from the most recent national surveys.! For more information about this presentation or to ?nd out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: ? ? ? ? Jason Boxt (jboxt@gpg.com)
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