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Using Search to Predict the Winner of
American Idol Season 8:
Adam Lambert vs. Kris Allen
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Hypothesis and Methodology                                                         (Place logo in slide
                                                                                         master)




Hypothesis: Search data can help predict the winner of American Idol
? By reviewing search data and trends from Google Insights for the top
  3 American Idol contestants, we are able to determine:
   ? Search popularity: Who has the most search volume at a given time?
   ? Regional searches: What are the top states searching for a contestant?
   ? Related searches: What other terms (or contestants) are searches
     looking for?




                                     www.360i.com     Proprietary & Confidential                          2
American Idol Season 5 (2006):
Taylor Hicks vs. Katharine McPhee




                                    3
Hicks takes the lead in search a couple of weeks                                                                            Insert Logo Here
                                                                                                                           (Place logo in slide
                                                                                                                                 master)

before the finale and his eventual victory
        AMERICAN IDOL SEASON 5 SEARCH TRENDS FOR TOP 3 CONTESTANTS
                             (APRIL – MAY 2006)
 100
                                                           May 25th: Searches for Taylor
  90                                                       Hicks peak the day after he
                                                           claims the title
  80

  70
                                                                     Elliot says goodbye; Hicks
  60
                                                                     is the search leader
  50

  40         McPhee receives more
             searches than Hicks several
  30         weeks before the finale
  20

  10

   0
  4/5/2006      4/12/2006    4/19/2006      4/26/2006       5/3/2006          5/10/2006    5/17/2006      Season Finale    5/31/2006
                                                                                                           (5/24/2006)

                                      taylor hicks        katharine mcphee           elliott yamin


                            Source: 360i Analysis Google Insights; May 2009
                                                              www.360i.com                    Proprietary & Confidential                          4
Insert Logo Here

Predicting Hicks over McPhee with search                                                        (Place logo in slide
                                                                                                      master)




? Taylor Hicks had more searches than Katharine McPhee leading up to
  the finale
? Elliott Yamin was generally not competitive in search with the 2
  finalists overtime. Elliot’s relatively small fan base (as determined
  by search) probably had a minimal effect on the final results
? Elliott’s top states (including his home state of Virginia) were
  dominated by searches for Taylor Hicks (blue) in March and April




                 Source: 360i Analysis Google Insights; May 2009
                                                   www.360i.com    Proprietary & Confidential                          5
American Idol Season 6 (2007):
Jordin Sparks vs. Blake Lewis




                                 6
With 3 strong finalists competing to make the                                                                            Insert Logo Here

top 2, 3rd place Doolittle’s fans appear to vote                                                                        (Place logo in slide
                                                                                                                              master)



for Season 6 winner, Sparks, in the finale
        AMERICAN IDOL SEASON 6 SEARCH TRENDS FOR TOP 3 CONTESTANTS
                             (APRIL – MAY 2007)
                                                            May 24th: Searches for “Jordin
  100                                                       Sparks” surge after her victory

  90

  80                                   But with top contender Doolittle
                                       out, who would her voters
  70                                   support? Sparks and Lewis are
  60
                                       neck and neck in search

  50
        Blake Lewis appears to
  40    be the early favorite…
  30

  20

  10

    0
  4/4/2007   4/11/2007     4/18/2007      4/25/2007       5/2/2007         5/9/2007      5/16/2007      Season Finale      5/30/2007
                                                                                                         (5/23/2007)

                                     jordin sparks        blake lewis        melinda doolittle

                         Source: 360i Analysis Google Insights; May 2009
                                                           www.360i.com                  Proprietary & Confidential                            7
Insert Logo Here

Predicting Sparks over Blake with search                                                        (Place logo in slide
                                                                                                      master)




? Unlike 3rd place finisher Elliot Yamin (Season 5), Melinda Doolittle
  was competitive in search with the top 2 finalists
? Jordin Sparks (as well as 4th place contestant, Lakisha Jones)
  received more related searches to Melinda than Blake in the months
  leading up to the finale




                 Source: 360i Analysis Google Insights; May 2009
                                                   www.360i.com    Proprietary & Confidential                          8
American Idol Season 7 (2008):
David Cook vs. David Archuleta




                                 9
In the weeks leading up to the finale, season 7                                                                        Insert Logo Here

winner, David Cook, is generally more popular                                                                         (Place logo in slide
                                                                                                                            master)



in search than runner-up David Archuleta
         AMERICAN IDOL SEASON 7 SEARCH TRENDS FOR TOP 3 CONTESTANTS
                              (APRIL – MAY 2008)
   100                                                               May 22nd: The day
                                                                     after Cook is declared
   90                                                                winner of the Davids
   80     Searches for 3rd place
          Syesha Mercado never
   70     compete with the top 2
   60

   50

   40                    With a week and a half to
                         go, Archuleta surpasses
   30
                         Cook but cannot hold on
   20

   10

     0
   4/2/2008   4/9/2008     4/16/2008      4/23/2008      4/30/2008         5/7/2008    5/14/2008     Season Finale    5/28/2008
                                                                                                     (5/21/2008)

                                    david cook         david archuleta          syesha mercado
                         Source: 360i Analysis Google Insights; May 2009
                                                           www.360i.com                  Proprietary & Confidential                          10
Insert Logo Here

Predicting Cook over Archuleta with search                                                      (Place logo in slide
                                                                                                      master)




? 3rd place Syesha Mercado is not competitive in search with David
  Cook or David Archuleta
? Syesha’s top states are large and are primarily searching for David
  Cook
? Archuleta’s home state, Florida, leans to Cook




                 Source: 360i Analysis Google Insights; May 2009
                                                   www.360i.com    Proprietary & Confidential                          11
American Idol Season 8 (2009):
Adam Lambert vs. Kris Allen




                                 12
Search trends suggest that Adam Lambert will                                                                          Insert Logo Here
                                                                                                                     (Place logo in slide
                                                                                                                           master)

be the next American Idol
        AMERICAN IDOL SEASON 8 SEARCH TRENDS FOR TOP 3 CONTESTANTS
                             (APRIL – MAY 2009)
 100
                                                  ?Searches for Adam Lambert reached its highest after
  90                                              he performed “Mad World” and received a standing
                                                  ovation from Simon
  80                                              ?Search volume for Lambert has consistently been
                                                  higher than top competitors
  70

  60                                          Finalist Kris Allen’s search                    Danny Gokey exits and sets
                                              volume has never reached                        up a Lambert vs. Allen
  50                                          Adam Lambert’s levels                           finale

  40

  30

  20

  10

   0
  4/1/2009   4/8/2009           4/15/2009           4/22/2009             4/29/2009       5/6/2009            5/13/2009

                                       adam lambert          kris allen         danny gokey

                        Source: 360i Analysis Google Insights; May 2009
                                                          www.360i.com                  Proprietary & Confidential                          13
Insert Logo Here

Predicting Lambert over Allen with search                                                       (Place logo in slide
                                                                                                      master)




? Adam Lambert has consistently been the leader in search against his
  main rival, Kris Allen
? With the exception of Allen’s home state of Arkansas, Lambert
  dominates Kris Allen’s and Danny Gokey’s top states




? Although Gokey’s search volume was not competitive with
  Lambert’s, regional interest for Gokey suggests his voters will
  support Lambert


                 Source: 360i Analysis Google Insights; May 2009
                                                   www.360i.com    Proprietary & Confidential                          14

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American Idol Search Trends

  • 1. Insert Logo Here (align left side with first word in Title) you can delete this box on slide master Using Search to Predict the Winner of American Idol Season 8: Adam Lambert vs. Kris Allen
  • 2. Insert Logo Here Hypothesis and Methodology (Place logo in slide master) Hypothesis: Search data can help predict the winner of American Idol ? By reviewing search data and trends from Google Insights for the top 3 American Idol contestants, we are able to determine: ? Search popularity: Who has the most search volume at a given time? ? Regional searches: What are the top states searching for a contestant? ? Related searches: What other terms (or contestants) are searches looking for? www.360i.com Proprietary & Confidential 2
  • 3. American Idol Season 5 (2006): Taylor Hicks vs. Katharine McPhee 3
  • 4. Hicks takes the lead in search a couple of weeks Insert Logo Here (Place logo in slide master) before the finale and his eventual victory AMERICAN IDOL SEASON 5 SEARCH TRENDS FOR TOP 3 CONTESTANTS (APRIL – MAY 2006) 100 May 25th: Searches for Taylor 90 Hicks peak the day after he claims the title 80 70 Elliot says goodbye; Hicks 60 is the search leader 50 40 McPhee receives more searches than Hicks several 30 weeks before the finale 20 10 0 4/5/2006 4/12/2006 4/19/2006 4/26/2006 5/3/2006 5/10/2006 5/17/2006 Season Finale 5/31/2006 (5/24/2006) taylor hicks katharine mcphee elliott yamin Source: 360i Analysis Google Insights; May 2009 www.360i.com Proprietary & Confidential 4
  • 5. Insert Logo Here Predicting Hicks over McPhee with search (Place logo in slide master) ? Taylor Hicks had more searches than Katharine McPhee leading up to the finale ? Elliott Yamin was generally not competitive in search with the 2 finalists overtime. Elliot’s relatively small fan base (as determined by search) probably had a minimal effect on the final results ? Elliott’s top states (including his home state of Virginia) were dominated by searches for Taylor Hicks (blue) in March and April Source: 360i Analysis Google Insights; May 2009 www.360i.com Proprietary & Confidential 5
  • 6. American Idol Season 6 (2007): Jordin Sparks vs. Blake Lewis 6
  • 7. With 3 strong finalists competing to make the Insert Logo Here top 2, 3rd place Doolittle’s fans appear to vote (Place logo in slide master) for Season 6 winner, Sparks, in the finale AMERICAN IDOL SEASON 6 SEARCH TRENDS FOR TOP 3 CONTESTANTS (APRIL – MAY 2007) May 24th: Searches for “Jordin 100 Sparks” surge after her victory 90 80 But with top contender Doolittle out, who would her voters 70 support? Sparks and Lewis are 60 neck and neck in search 50 Blake Lewis appears to 40 be the early favorite… 30 20 10 0 4/4/2007 4/11/2007 4/18/2007 4/25/2007 5/2/2007 5/9/2007 5/16/2007 Season Finale 5/30/2007 (5/23/2007) jordin sparks blake lewis melinda doolittle Source: 360i Analysis Google Insights; May 2009 www.360i.com Proprietary & Confidential 7
  • 8. Insert Logo Here Predicting Sparks over Blake with search (Place logo in slide master) ? Unlike 3rd place finisher Elliot Yamin (Season 5), Melinda Doolittle was competitive in search with the top 2 finalists ? Jordin Sparks (as well as 4th place contestant, Lakisha Jones) received more related searches to Melinda than Blake in the months leading up to the finale Source: 360i Analysis Google Insights; May 2009 www.360i.com Proprietary & Confidential 8
  • 9. American Idol Season 7 (2008): David Cook vs. David Archuleta 9
  • 10. In the weeks leading up to the finale, season 7 Insert Logo Here winner, David Cook, is generally more popular (Place logo in slide master) in search than runner-up David Archuleta AMERICAN IDOL SEASON 7 SEARCH TRENDS FOR TOP 3 CONTESTANTS (APRIL – MAY 2008) 100 May 22nd: The day after Cook is declared 90 winner of the Davids 80 Searches for 3rd place Syesha Mercado never 70 compete with the top 2 60 50 40 With a week and a half to go, Archuleta surpasses 30 Cook but cannot hold on 20 10 0 4/2/2008 4/9/2008 4/16/2008 4/23/2008 4/30/2008 5/7/2008 5/14/2008 Season Finale 5/28/2008 (5/21/2008) david cook david archuleta syesha mercado Source: 360i Analysis Google Insights; May 2009 www.360i.com Proprietary & Confidential 10
  • 11. Insert Logo Here Predicting Cook over Archuleta with search (Place logo in slide master) ? 3rd place Syesha Mercado is not competitive in search with David Cook or David Archuleta ? Syesha’s top states are large and are primarily searching for David Cook ? Archuleta’s home state, Florida, leans to Cook Source: 360i Analysis Google Insights; May 2009 www.360i.com Proprietary & Confidential 11
  • 12. American Idol Season 8 (2009): Adam Lambert vs. Kris Allen 12
  • 13. Search trends suggest that Adam Lambert will Insert Logo Here (Place logo in slide master) be the next American Idol AMERICAN IDOL SEASON 8 SEARCH TRENDS FOR TOP 3 CONTESTANTS (APRIL – MAY 2009) 100 ?Searches for Adam Lambert reached its highest after 90 he performed “Mad World” and received a standing ovation from Simon 80 ?Search volume for Lambert has consistently been higher than top competitors 70 60 Finalist Kris Allen’s search Danny Gokey exits and sets volume has never reached up a Lambert vs. Allen 50 Adam Lambert’s levels finale 40 30 20 10 0 4/1/2009 4/8/2009 4/15/2009 4/22/2009 4/29/2009 5/6/2009 5/13/2009 adam lambert kris allen danny gokey Source: 360i Analysis Google Insights; May 2009 www.360i.com Proprietary & Confidential 13
  • 14. Insert Logo Here Predicting Lambert over Allen with search (Place logo in slide master) ? Adam Lambert has consistently been the leader in search against his main rival, Kris Allen ? With the exception of Allen’s home state of Arkansas, Lambert dominates Kris Allen’s and Danny Gokey’s top states ? Although Gokey’s search volume was not competitive with Lambert’s, regional interest for Gokey suggests his voters will support Lambert Source: 360i Analysis Google Insights; May 2009 www.360i.com Proprietary & Confidential 14
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